Waiting for R0
Sometimes I think I’ve been cast in a play by Samuel Beckett and someone forgot to inform me. Yesterday I went to the supermarket (incidentally, no line, maybe the temperature police are scaring people off) to buy groceries and a pair of scissors. In this supermarket (the Esselunga) scissors, along with other household items and kitchen utensils are displayed on top of the shelves. I noticed that the items were taped off with red and white tape, accompanied by a notice stating that the items were unavailable for purchase. I asked the store manager why I could not buy a pair of scissors and he explained to me, that because the specialty shops selling household goods had been closed, the supermarkets were no longer allowed to sell these items. Who came up with this half-baked idea? Restaurants and bars are closed but the supermarket can still sell food, liquor and coffee! Incidentally, the same strange principal applies to stationary items (paper, pens, etc.), but following a massive protest by mothers needing these items for their kids’ home schooling, it appears that the “Battle of the Marker” (La Battaglia del Pennarello) may have been won, and that as of today we can purchase stationary items again. The store manager told me that scissors might qualify as a stationary item and I should check back today. If not, I suppose I will add scissors to the list of items I’d be happy to barter for. In return I can offer an item of clothing I have not worn, nor will probably ever wear again from my closet. I have noticed that I have many, many items of that nature. I bet you have too.
We are entering the sixth week of our kids being out of school. The general lock-down has been extended for another two weeks (the initial deadline was April 3rd, its now the 18th) but it’s clear that if the goal is to reach an infection index (R0 basic reproduction number) of less than 1, then we can forget that deadline too. One study that just came out estimates we might get there between the 5-16th of May. The R0 is currently somewhere between 2-3 and has been over 4 in regions like Lombardy. But I just don’t know how reliable this data is. Without blanket testing, we don’t really know. An article came out in the Corriere della Sera which re-reported a piece from a Chinese paper that stated that the actual deaths in Wuhan were 41,000. If this is the case, well then, we really, know nothing.
We know nothing and we are surrounded by ignorance. A recipe for catastrophe? The police were busy fining lockdown offenders over the weekend. Almost 5000 fines were given, among whom were 50 people who have Covid19 and should have been in quarantine but were out and about. These people can now end up in prison for 3-12 years, with charges including involuntary manslaughter.
Apologies if my posts are dropping off a bit, I am drowning in housework. Cooking, baking (yes, I found the yeast!), laundry, ironing, repeat. Indeed, we iron here in Italy. There is no polyester blend and even in lockdown, I like my clothes crisp.